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A few final thoughts on Proposition 208 with Election Day just a few days away:

The wrong top 10

If Proposition 208 passes, the state will join a top-10 list on which no state wants to appear.

We鈥檒l end up on the list of states with the highest income tax rates nationwide. Our contemporaries will include the likes of California, New York and New Jersey.

As numerous economists and commentators have pointed out, high-tax states tend to underperform economically, sometimes dramatically so.

A recent by economists Dr. Art Laffer, Stephen Moore and Erwin Antoni compared the economic health of seven states with no income tax against the nine states with the highest income tax rates:

Over the past decade, these seven states have outperformed the nine states with the highest marginal income tax rates, as well as the nation as a whole, in population growth, employment growth, personal income growth and GSP growth. If passed, Arizona would replace Delaware as the ninth highest income tax rate state in America.

In other words, it would join the category of the loser states, not the gaining states.

The proponents of Proposition 208 are attempting to turn a half-century of economic history on its head.

Neighborhood leaders and laggards

The move to the top-10-highest list would make Arizona economically uncompetitive regionally and nationally.

It鈥檚 in our own neighborhood where we鈥檇 stick out like a sore thumb. Our neighbors Utah, Colorado and New Mexico all have top income tax rates under 5%, but our current 4.5% rate is the lowest. Nevada doesn鈥檛 have a state income tax. If Proposition 208 passes we鈥檇 rocket up to a top rate of 8%.

Arizona has been in the pole position to attract jobs fleeing California, a state with a top income tax of more than 13%.

As Laffer, Moore and Antoni write, 鈥淎ccording to the IRS, since the 1992 tax year (conveniently in the midst of Arizona鈥檚 tax cutting spree), Arizona has gained over 201,000 tax returns and almost $12 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI) from California alone.鈥�

If we erase our competitive advantage, it will be far too easy for job creators to pass over Arizona for another friendlier locale.

We鈥檝e got the best house on the block right now. Let鈥檚 not trash the place with the largest tax increase in Arizona history.

An accelerant, or sand in the gears?

Arizona鈥檚 economy is in the pandemic than most states in the country. Arizona鈥檚 labor force is , but we鈥檙e still down about 125,000 jobs.

All of our energy should be on ensuring our policies are properly calibrated to win back every single one of those jobs. Proposition 208 does exactly the opposite.

I had the chance recently to with the American Enterprise Institute鈥檚 Dr. Michael Strain, one of the most thoughtful minds in fiscal policy today, who discussed how states like Arizona should be approaching their economic policy during this pandemic-induced downturn.

鈥淚f you are a state government, if you are the federal government, now is the time to be doing everything you can to support existing businesses, to encourage new businesses to start, to support consumer spending,鈥� Dr. Strain said. 鈥淪tate governments should be doing everything they can do to avoid countercyclical policies, to avoid raising taxes and making it harder for businesses at a time when the economy is weak.鈥�

Proposition 208 ignores that prescription by taking the capital that supports private enterprise out of the private sector, which only prolongs our recovery and exacerbates the struggles of so many small businesses.

No reforms, no results

Also joining my conversation with Dr. Strain was Dr. Rick Hess, AEI鈥檚 director of education policy studies. He鈥檚 an all-star in the K-12 education reform movement. Count him as a skeptic that Proposition 208, which doesn鈥檛 call for any improvement in academic outcomes or educational attainment, will result in a better education for Arizona鈥檚 K-12 students. The record of states that spend more on education and simply hope for the best isn鈥檛 a good one, he says.

鈥淐an more money help? Of course it can,鈥� Dr. Hess said. 鈥淲ould I be confident that a big increase in state spending was going to make a big difference for kids with no other attention to reform or improvement? I鈥檇 be hugely skeptical.鈥�

Dr. Hess also doesn鈥檛 buy the argument proffered by the proponents that Proposition 208 will help solve the teacher shortage.

鈥淭hat suggests that the opportunity here is part of the initiative would be creating new pathways in the teaching profession, where folks work a 12-month year, are paid like 12-month professionals, rather than simply putting a lot of resources into districts and hoping they get spent,鈥� Hess said.

In case you were wondering, no such new thinking on attracting new entrants to the teaching profession is included in Proposition 208.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e talking about a package of reforms, thinking differently about teacher retirement benefits and health care, you鈥檙e talking about staffing differently, you鈥檙e talking about holding schools responsible for serving kids well, then I am wide open to the argument that we ought to be increasing investment in schools,鈥� Hess said. 鈥淏ut the idea that we ought to just be throwing a lot of dollars and saying, 鈥楤oy, we hope these get spent differently than the money that鈥檚 gone before,鈥� I tend to be real unenthusiastic about that approach.鈥�

Like everything else about Proposition 208, there is no new thinking, there are no new reforms, and there is no increased accountability for outcomes.

Taxpayers, teachers and students all deserve more than Proposition 208鈥檚 empty promises. It鈥檚 terrible policy with even worse timing.

Glenn Hamer is president and CEO of the Arizona 小红帽直播app of Commerce and Industry.聽